Toyota Stock Watch: Edition 1

John Hunter recently commented that he owns some Toyota stock. And since I value John’s wisdom I decided to take a look at the TM chart to see what it looked like.

Now, before I go any further, let me be crystal clear… I am not offering any financial advice and, at least for now, I am not an owner of Toyota stock. I do own two Toyota vehicles though… and LOVE them but I digress. Oh, and Toyota also has a rocking production system but, again, I’m digressing!

Fun with Technical Analysis

Anyhow, I used to mess around trading stocks. And since I’ve studied things like technical analysis I thought it might be kind of fun to track Toyota’s stock from a technical perspective.

Let me also say that I am far from an expert at this and would love nothing more than to hear your opinions of what you see and what you think will happen.

My Take on the TM Stock

Anyhow, here is my first take on what I see… keeping it real simple for now. In the future I may pull out some fun stuff like Fibonacci retracements and MACD crossovers… but for today’s lesson we’ll look at some simple support and resistance lines.

If you click on the chart you’ll notice that this stock had been on a steady downward trend bouncing between a nice little “channel” that I’ve manually drawn in.

Then, the stock was crushed in early October of 2008 as Toyota failed to impress the street with their FY 2009 Guidance.

After this beating the stock gyrated sideways finding support around $60 (point A). It also, interestingly enough, found resistance at what used to be a support line (point B). Isn’t this stuff intriguing?

Anyhow, in April of this year the stock finally managed to bust back into the channel only to meet the same downward trending resistance (point C) which forced it back down.

What’s Next?

From a purely technical perspective the biggest question mark I have is whether or not the stock will find support at around $68 (point D). If it does, it could possibly see a bullish bounce up… but, AGAIN, I am not offering any financial advice here. I’m just a nerd who loves to look at charts.

What do you think?

What do you think? Are you bullish or bearish on Toyota’s stock? Do you see anything else on their chart I might be missing?

5 Comments

  1. Peter P Patterson, MD

    May 17, 2009 - 4:57 pm

    Thanks for a lite intro to technical analysis. It IS interesting. Me, I’m bullish on Toyota 🙂
    /Dr. Pete

  2. T.J.

    May 18, 2009 - 8:14 am

    They might have a great production system but I wouldn’t touch this stock with a ten foot pole.

  3. Alan Shephard

    May 18, 2009 - 7:49 pm

    Very cool! I’ve always wanted to learn more about this type of trading. I’ve added TM to my stock watch list and saw it was up pretty good today!

  4. Nathaniel

    May 18, 2009 - 11:15 pm

    If you compare TM against Ford and the Dow Jones, you see TM more closely follows the Dow than does Ford, almost as if Toyota is acting as a blue chip from days of old. Honda, on the other hand, out performs them all. Over the past 6 months, Ford looks to have a much stronger set of gains than all the above mentioned, but they are selling in the $5 range, versus TMs $75…

  5. Observer

    May 27, 2009 - 1:46 am

    I am skeptical about TA. You may find this good in prediction. But I guess to many people use the computer based analysis and trading and they may be fulfilling a prophesy.